Scientists predict an increase in the consumption of antibiotics by 202% 2030

The results of a study conducted by a team of scientists from Washington, showed a sharp increase in the consumption of antibiotics on a global scale. This is stated in an article published in the journal PNAS.

The study was analyzed trends and factors in antibiotic consumption from 2000 to 2015 76 countries and forecasted global consumption of antibiotics up to 2030 as a whole.

According to researchers at the American center for disease dynamics, Economics and policy (CDDEP), indicators of antibiotic use among men increased by 65% from 21.2 billion of installed daily doses (DDD) in 2000 to 34.8 billion USD in 2015. The frequency of use of the drugs also increased over the period from 11.3 to 15.7 USD per 1 thousand people per day – an increase of 39%.

The largest increase recorded in countries with low and middle incomes, reaching 24.5 billion USD in 2015, compared to 11.4 billion in 2000.

In countries with high income, in contrast, the number of USD per 1 thousand inhabitants decreased by 4%, despite a small increase in the total consumption of antibiotics. In 2015 the leading consumers of antibiotics among the countries with high income level were the United States, France and Italy, among the countries with low and middle income – India, China and Pakistan.

The results showed that the use of antibiotics “of last resort” such as glycylcycline also increased in all groups of countries over 15 years.

Scientists project that if all countries continue to increase their consumption of antibiotics and to do this without any policy changes, the overall consumption will increase by 202% to 128 billion USD in 2030, and the frequency of consumption of antibiotics by 161% to 41.1 USD per 1 thousand people per day.

The reduction in global consumption and increasing global surveillance is crucial to reduce the threat of antibiotic resistance, concluded the authors.

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